Over 50s predict the stock market better than financial experts

Thursday 30 December 2010

Over 50s predict the stock market better than financial experts

  • Saga customers optimistic for shares in 2011

When it comes to predicting investment markets, the over 50s have once again proven that older is definitely wiser, with 50% accurately predicting the end 2010 of the UK stock market a year in advance.

A November 2009 survey for over 50s Group Saga asked respondents to predict where the FTSE100 would be by the end of 2010. Half of respondents correctly placed the FTSE at between 5501-6000. A further 41% predicted the rate to be just marginally higher or lower. Only 8% of respondent's predictions were vastly inaccurate.

"For 50% to accurately predict the FTSE100 a year in advance is quite astonishing and demonstrates their ability to draw from past experience when reacting to market volatility" said Ros Altmann, Director General of Saga.

"This is even more surprising when you consider that many of the expert financial predictions in the media last year were much more pessimistic*.

With over 50s predicting the FTSE better than so many experts over the past year, we have carried out the survey again asking for their predictions to the end of 2011. Almost three quarters (74%) of respondents are optimistic expect that the FTSE will be the same or stronger this time next year.

"Clearly there's some merit in the saying older and wiser. Over 50s do not seem to be swayed by current trends, trusting their tried and tested experience to lead their financial decisions".

In addition to predicting the level of the FTSE, over half (51%) of respondents to the 2011 predictions survey were confident that investing in stocks and shares offers the best financial returns over the coming year and expect shares to do better than property or cash.


Populus received 11,760 responses from Saga members aged 50 and over to its online poll between 10th and 16th December 2010. *Timesonline article, 7 November 2009, titled 'Where will the stock market be at the end of 2010?' Jeremy Batstone of Charles Stanley forecast FTSE at 4,700, Justin Urquhart Stewart predicted it at 5,000, Mike Lenhoff, Brewin Dolphin predicted that the FTSE 100 would be in the 5,000 and 5,500 range at the end of 2010. On 17 December 2009, Motley Fool predicted the FTSE would end 2010 at 4,999.

For more information please contact the Saga Press Office on 01303 771529

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