Over 50s predict FTSE, base rate and inflation for the end of 2016

Tuesday 29 December 2015

• One in ten correctly predicted the FTSE 100 Index would be at end of 2015 • Two fifths think the FTSE will increase by the end of 2016

Over 50s predict FTSE, base rate and inflation for the end of 2016

Around one in ten over 50s correctly predicted the 2015 closing range for the FTSE 100, suggesting that like many financial experts, the majority did not know what the year was going to bring.

However, the Saga Share Dealing Service poll of 7,000 over 50s suggests that some people may be disappointed with the way blue chip companies have performed this year, as a quarter thought the FTSE 100 would be performing better than it currently is.

Despite this two fifths of over 50s have a positive outlook for 2016 as they believe the overall value of Britain’s 100 biggest companies listed on the Stock Exchange will increase**. On average, the Saga generations predict the FTSE 100 will be around 6,300 this time next year; with a bullish one in five thinking it will be higher than 6,400. Only one in 14 (7%) think the FTSE will be lower by the end of 2016.

Men are more optimistic than women as they’re more than twice as likely as women to think the FTSE 100 will increase (54% and 24% respectively). 

When it comes to the Bank of England Base Rate half of over 50s, many of whom are  dependent on their savings interest to boost their income, hopefully predict it will increase by the end of 2016, while one in five think it is likely to remain the same as now. However, one in three said they have no idea what the rate will become this time next year. 

When asked about inflation the majority of over 50s believe that it will be a lot higher than it currently stands. On average, people believe the consumer price index will be around 1%, compared to -0.1% which is where it sat when the online survey was conducted.

Joanne Fowler, head of product, Saga Personal Finance, commented: “This year, we’ve seen some highs and lows, from the FTSE 100 reaching an all-time high to the Chinese stock market taking a tumble; events that even financial experts couldn’t have predicted at the start of 2015. Despite these events some over 50s correctly predicted where the market would lie now.

“The majority of our customers have a positive outlook for 2016 with many hoping the base rate will increase so they can make extra income on their savings. It’s great to see our customers are financially savvy and thinking about how to make their money work as hard as possible for them.”


Notes to Editors:
*Populus interviewed 7,005 Saga customers, all aged 50+, online between 12th and 21st December 2014. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
**Populus interviewed 7,880 Saga customers, all aged 50*, online between 15th and 18th December 2015.

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